The future of TikTok in the United States hangs by a thread as the Supreme Court appears inclined to uphold a bipartisan law that could ban the app as early as January 19th. This development stems from the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, signed into law last April by President Joe Biden. (1/17 Update: A report has come out saying President Biden won’t enforce the ban, leaving the decision to President-elect Donald Trump.)
What Happens if TikTok Is Banned?
A ban wouldn’t immediately make TikTok disappear from devices where it’s already downloaded. However, the app would no longer be available in either the Android or iOs stores. ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, would be unable to issue updates, causing the app to degrade over time. Without updates, TikTok will eventually become incompatible with newer versions of mobile operating systems, leading to a diminished user experience. Additionally, the app’s reliance on foreign servers would further lower performance, making it less reliable and less engaging.
Here’s the Truth…
The demand for quick, snackable content isn’t changing—what might shift is where that content is most fervently consumed. The platform or mechanism users gravitate toward will be the real X factor and what we, along with other marketers and users alike, will be watching. While each platform will have its own nuances, these can be adapted to meet evolving needs. That’s why, no matter what happens, keep authentic, bite-sized content flowing. Authenticity and connection is what users value, and the demand is undeniable.
The Future is “Short”
Since short-form video content is here to stay, here are the four main scenarios we could see playing out. We recommend brands be ready for all outcomes.
Scenario 1: TikTok Remains Supreme (for Now): TikTok boasts over 170 million U.S. users and gained massive traction during the pandemic, making a ban far from simple. With a new administration in place and the possibility of a major acquisition, TikTok could survive beyond January 19. Many brands continue running ads on the platform, betting on its resilience. Could Elon Musk enter the picture? Some TikTok loyalists are confident it won’t meet the same fate as Vine (RIP).
Scenario 2: YouTube Shorts Gains Momentum: Launched in 2020, YouTube Shorts has quickly gained popularity, thanks to YouTube’s massive user base and its powerful search and recommendation algorithms. The recent extension of Shorts’ maximum length from 60 seconds to 3 minutes gives creators more freedom to craft impactful stories. Many TikTok creators have already started migrating their content to Shorts, signaling a potential shift in platform preferences.
Scenario 3: Instagram “Finally” Steps Up: Instagram has been making moves to prioritize short-form video by tweaking its algorithm to favor Reels. The platform put so much energy towards video content that they had to publicly admit they were course-correcting to better balance static and video content after user pushback. Further, limitations like non-clickable links, a restricted music library, and subpar search functionality have hindered Reels’ full potential. Many brands repurpose their TikTok content for Instagram to tap into shared trends, but this may be Instagram’s opportunity to address its shortcomings and strengthen its Reels offering.
Scenario 4: A New Competitor Emerges: As users push back against the perceived “Meta monopoly,” there’s a growing demand for something fresh. Could “RedNote” be the next big player? Could X (formerly Twitter) dive more into the short-form video space? Or will a completely new platform rise to challenge TikTok’s dominance? One thing is certain: the demand for innovation is strong, and the door is wide open for a new contender.
How Will We Pivot for Clients?
As the landscape of short-form video continues to evolve, our strategy is clear: we will migrate our clients’ content to where users want to be—whether that’s YouTube Shorts, a new competitor, or any emerging platform. Our priority is to ensure that their brands are leading the conversation, engaging with their audience, and staying relevant, no matter what platform rises to the occasion. As long as the platform is safe and aligns with our clients’ values, we will embrace the opportunity for innovation. Ultimately, we remain focused on one thing: prioritizing short-form, authentic content that users crave and ensuring our clients stay at the forefront of industry conversations.
